Climate Clash: Fossil Fuel Influence, Public Opinion, and State Legislators’ Online Discourse

The impasse in climate policy at the national level highlights the pivotal role of state-level policies, where state legislatures play a crucial role in making climate-related policies. Despite intense debates on the divisive issue of climate change and clear differences in positions among states, there is little knowledge about legislators’ discussions on climate change and relevant policies. Studying almost half a million Facebook posts from over 5,000 state legislators, we use a large language model to identify over 8,000 posts related to climate change. We find that legislators with extreme ideological views are more inclined to participate in this politicized divisive discourse. While fossil fuel interest groups continue to be the primary influencers of legislators’ attention on climate through donations and lobbying, public opinion can mitigate the influence of these groups. Our research suggests that increasing public awareness of climate threat is a viable approach to encourage bottom-up policy development. Furthermore, our findings highlight the importance of state-level lobbying and advocacy in advancing climate policy agendas.